Tuesday, October 11, 2016

ICM poll in the Guardian gives Conservatives a 17 point lead

Here are the voting intention figures from ICM's September poll for the Guardian:

Conservatives: 43% (+2%)
Labour: 26% (-2%)
UKIP: 11% (-2%)
Lib Dems: 8% (-1%)
Greens: 6% (+2%)

(ICM used a sample of 2017 adults aged over 18, weighted for turnout and past votes, data collected between 7th and 9th October).

Political parties normally expect some bounce in the polls after a conference, as ministers make major speeches and generate favourable media coverage, but this is the joint second highest Conservative lead ever recorded by ICM since they started this polling series in 1992.

The Conservative shares among older voters - who are most likely to turn out and actually vote - were even higher though ICM appear to have adjusted for this.

ICM added, as you can read here, that

"Labour’s share has only been saved from a record low by ICM’s standard post-fieldwork adjustment techniques, which ordinarily help the Tories. The reason for this is that this week, there are a high number of people who say they voted Labour in 2015 but DK/refuse to say what they will do next time, and our reallocation of them back to the party for they voted for ends up adding two-points back to Labour."

The Conservatives must not get complacent - we will have a bumpy ride over Brexit even if it comes right in the end and even ignoring the European issue there is a lot which could go wrong over the next few years. And of course we have all learned to take opinion polls with a pinch of salt.

Nevertheless Conservatives will be pleased with this poll ...

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