Thursday, October 13, 2016

Referendum Games: Nicola Sturgeon is not being straight with Scotland

Nicola Sturgeon, first minister of Scotland announced today to an SNP gathering that she would publish "for consultation" a bill proposing a second Scottish Independence referendum. The first thing to understand about this is that she is playing a disingenuous game aimed partly at keeping her own supporters happy but mostly designed to hold a sword of Damocles over the UK government's head during the Brexit negotiations.

The latest opinion poll on what the people of Scotland think about the idea of a second Independence Referendum came from BMG and had support on 38% and opposition on 47% - a nine point lead against the SNP which is about what happened in the 2014 Referendum.

There is not a cat in hell's chance that Nicola Sturgeon would actually call a second independence referendum while the polls are showing anything like this.

Of course, she may not get the chance. Earlier this year the SNP lost their absolute majority in the Scottish parliament.

No, this bill is a cynical trick to keep her own troops happy and to provide her with a threat which she can hold over the UK government during forthcoming negotiations and discussions.


Jim said...

how is it?

how is it a threat? if she held a referendum tomorrow, and won it (look i know thats not possible, this is hypothetical, if she could and did)

Q- what would happen?

A- Scotland would no longer be a part of the current member state of the EU (the UK) so would be both out of the UK and out of the EU in the worst possible way.

So where exactly is her dagger?

Jim said...

To be totally honest with you, if that is honestly the First Ministers attempt at "preserving the best interests of Scotland" then it would be far better for the people of Scotland if she just out right declared war on it, they would certainly be safer.

Chris Whiteside said...

I agree with your second post.

The threat is that she knows Theresa May really does not want another Indyref, so she wants to be able to say "give me this or I'll call another independence referendum."

Of course, Theresa May could well decide, or be forced, to call that bluff ...