The criteria for the exit from lockdown

Yesterday the government announced that the lockdown is being extended for another three weeks.

They have also explained what the five evidence based criteria are which will be used to decide when it is safe to start easing these social distancing measures

  • The Foreign Secretary chaired meetings of the Cabinet and COBR to consider the advice from the scientific advisory group SAGE. 
  • While there are indications that social distancing measures have been successful in slowing down the spread of the virus, it is a mixed and inconsistent picture and, in some settings, infections are still likely to be increasing.

Prematurely relaxing the measures currently in place would risk damage to both public health and our economy. The worst thing Britain could do now is ease up too soon and allow a second peak of the virus to hit the NHS and hit the British people.

The government has set out the following five specific tests which they believe need to be met  before they can consider it safe to adjust any of the current measures:
  1. It is essential to protect the NHS’s ability to cope – NHS leaders must be confident that we are able to provide sufficient critical care and specialist treatment right across the UK. 
  2. We need to see a sustained and consistent fall in the daily death rates from coronavirus so we are confident that Britain has moved beyond the peak. 
  3. Th government needs to have reliable data from SAGE showing that the rate of infection is decreasing to manageable levels across the board. 
  4. They must be confident that the range of operational challenges, including testing capacity and PPE, are in hand, with supply able to meet future demand. 
  5. They must also be confident that any adjustments to the current measures will not risk a second peak of infections that overwhelm the NHS. 

When the government is confident on these five points, guided by science and data, they will look to adjust the measures – but will do this when the evidence demonstrates that is safe to do so.

The government briefing on which I have based this blog post concludes:

"We will make those decisions at the right time for this country – but for now, the most important thing people can do is to stay at home, to protect the NHS and save lives."

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