Rentoul on Brexit
John Rentoul, political correspondent of the Independent, had an interesting piece today entitles
"It would be an act of historic irresponsibility for Labour MPs to force Britain out of the EU without a deal."
He argues - convincingly in my opinion - that the chance of getting a significantly different deal from the EU is extremely unlikely, that there is unlikely to be another snap general election (which under the Fixed Term Parliament Act is quite hard to call) and that there almost certainly is not a majority for a second referendum at the moment in the House of Commons.
There isn't a majority for a "No Deal" Brexit either but there does not have to be because of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. Because it is in effect that's what happens in March 2019 if parliament does not pass anything else.
So, as Rentoul writes,
"But if there is no renegotiation, no second referendum and no general election, then the choice will come down to May’s deal or leaving without a deal.
This is a big moment in British history.
My view is that it would be irresponsible for Labour MPs – and SNP and Lib Dem MPs – to vote for a no-deal Brexit. If they are rational, they should vote for the deal.
But I am not confident that rationality will prevail."
You can read the full article here.
Rentoul's logic does of course depend on his explicit assumption that the consensus among MP's who voted Remain but have up to now accepted that the referendum imposes on them the democratic option to vote for Brexit continues in the event that they do vote for what they see as a form of Brexit they can live with and the ultra-Remainers and hard Brexiteers join together to vote it down.
If the deal fails through such an unholy alliance of supporters of a hard Brexit and those of no Brexit, neither can be certain which way those who want a soft Brexit - almost certainly the largest group in the House of Commons but not a majority - will jump.
But you can be certain that if the deal is voted down, some of those who vote against it will be directly responsible for causing what they regard as a terrible outcome. Either hardline Brexit supporters will have helped to stop Brexit, or hardline Remainers will have caused a hard Brexit.
"It would be an act of historic irresponsibility for Labour MPs to force Britain out of the EU without a deal."
He argues - convincingly in my opinion - that the chance of getting a significantly different deal from the EU is extremely unlikely, that there is unlikely to be another snap general election (which under the Fixed Term Parliament Act is quite hard to call) and that there almost certainly is not a majority for a second referendum at the moment in the House of Commons.
There isn't a majority for a "No Deal" Brexit either but there does not have to be because of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. Because it is in effect that's what happens in March 2019 if parliament does not pass anything else.
So, as Rentoul writes,
"But if there is no renegotiation, no second referendum and no general election, then the choice will come down to May’s deal or leaving without a deal.
This is a big moment in British history.
My view is that it would be irresponsible for Labour MPs – and SNP and Lib Dem MPs – to vote for a no-deal Brexit. If they are rational, they should vote for the deal.
But I am not confident that rationality will prevail."
You can read the full article here.
Rentoul's logic does of course depend on his explicit assumption that the consensus among MP's who voted Remain but have up to now accepted that the referendum imposes on them the democratic option to vote for Brexit continues in the event that they do vote for what they see as a form of Brexit they can live with and the ultra-Remainers and hard Brexiteers join together to vote it down.
If the deal fails through such an unholy alliance of supporters of a hard Brexit and those of no Brexit, neither can be certain which way those who want a soft Brexit - almost certainly the largest group in the House of Commons but not a majority - will jump.
But you can be certain that if the deal is voted down, some of those who vote against it will be directly responsible for causing what they regard as a terrible outcome. Either hardline Brexit supporters will have helped to stop Brexit, or hardline Remainers will have caused a hard Brexit.
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