Second quote of the day 20th November 2018

"Any deal that has as its parameters leaving the EU, keeping an open border with Ireland, letting business run smoothly and having our own immigration policy is going to resemble very closely the one that has been negotiated. 

 That deal has now presented the opportunity to keep a broadly sensible government and get Brexit over the line. 

 Those who say they can’t go along with that are risking bringing about the very opposite of everything they believe in." 
(William Hague, article in the Daily Telegraph in which he discusses the likely course of events if the ERG rebels were to succeed in voting Mrs May out of office.

The more likely result if the ERG get their 48 signatures, is that Theresa May will win the no confidence vote at this time, which makes her immune to further challenge for 12 months.

My reading of the situation is that such an outcome is likely to result in her premiership lasting about six month longer than I think it otherwise would if Britain leaves the EU on 29th March 2019.

However, I also agree with William Hague that the chaos which would result if Mrs May loses a no-confidence vote in the party or in parliament would make the possibility of Brexit not happening at all more likely.)

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