Friday, May 06, 2016

Expectations Management

It is sometimes extraordinary how a bad result can be made to appear acceptable if everyone was expecting worse.

For example, if Labour manages when all the votes are counted to be the first opposition for decades to make a net loss of council seats in a non General-election year, some people appear to be spinning it as an acceptable result for them because it had been widely expected that they might do even worse.

However, not everyone is blinded by expectations. For example, veteran commentator and pollster Peter Kellner says that it was a bad election for Labour based on the results so far.
In an article for Prospect, Kellner, formerly President of YouGov, writes:

“Labour has done badly, albeit not as catastrophically as it feared. It looks like ending up with a net loss of fewer than 50 council seats, not the widely-expected 150. Nevertheless, though Labour has done slightly better than last year, the BBC estimates that its average vote share is four per cent down on 2012. This is bad for a party hoping to regain power nationally at the next general election.

Unless today’s counts give Labour clear net gains, this will be the first time for more than 30 years than an opposition party has lost ground in council elections. Likewise, yesterday’s two parliamentary by-elections, in Ogmore and Sheffield, produced the expected Labour holds, but no surge in the party’s support. By any standard other than the pre-election predictions, yesterday was disastrous for Labour.

In general, it looks as if Labour’s support held up best in the south, and proved increasingly fragile further north ...

Labour’s worst performances last night were in Wales (down eight percentage points since the last equivalent elections in 2011) and Scotland (down nine) ... For Labour to come third in a country it used to dominate is truly startling.”

1 comment:

Jim said...

there are lots of things that can be "tinkered with" for a while. Take for example DC's Reform on benefits. Has he reformed the policy on benefits? - no has he ****, He has gained an exemption from certain things for a set time, but that is not reform of a policy, that is an exception from a policy for a certain legnth of time. Its not reforming a policy is it? because of course at the end of that certain length of time we revert back to the policy don't we. Its exactly why there will not and has never been any sort of reform of the CFP, its still there the same as it was, all that has ever been done is extended 10 year exceptions from it, following which of course we revert back to the CFP.

Though i do get Managing expectations, its why the Leave alliance are not putting forward stupid claims about spending an extra £350 million on the NHS each and every week, we know we cant, why on Earth Vote Leave Ltd cant see it I dont know.

Oh actually yes I do, its because a certain Mr Cummings is never wrong, even when he is. (kind of like the pope when they speak "Infallibly")