Monday, May 16, 2016

Polls all over the place again ...

ICM have two polls out today on the EU referendum and these two polls from the same polling company say two different things

Their phone poll has Remain eight points ahead, 10% after removing Don't knows.

Their online poll is the other way round, Leave four points ahead of Remain.

Worth remembering that the phone polls performed better than the online ones in predicting the 2015 general election result - most of the phone polls correctly predicted a Conservative lead, most of the online ones wrongly had Labour ahead.

But we can't take either as gospel - people may yet change their minds.

I still think a Remain vote looks more likely but this could yet go either way.

1 comment:

Jim said...

I am finding this one far more difficult to call than the last General Election. One reason of course is that its a referendum not an election, so the winner needs 50% + 1 rather than just a majority, another is that its an over all majority nation wide, so we need to factor in a lot more, and of course I think another reason is there is far more at stake with the referendum than there was at the Election.

I have a gut feeling that turnout will play the most vital roll.