Thursday, January 14, 2016

If Scotland had voted "Yes"

And while we're on the subject of the SNP and foolish nationalism ...

If there had been a "Yes" vote in the Scottish Independence referendum instead of a 55% to 45% vote to remain within the British union, Scotland would now be preparing for Independence which on the SNP timetable would be about ten weeks away, with a massive hole in its' budget.

The SNP's projections for the first year of Independence included £8 billion of oil revenues. At the moment these revenues are running at about £130 million.

Even economists and experts who were quoted by the SNP during the referendum in support of the economic case for Independence now admit that the economic case they made in 2014 is, to quote one of them, "heavily dented".

Difficult for any economist who wishes to retain a shred of professional credibility to dispute that since it is now estimated that there could be a £30 billion gap between the revenues the SNP forecast before 2019 and the reality.

Ouch.

Iain Martin has a good article here on what the consequences might have been.

It all goes to show what a careless vote in a referendum can do.

So when you are deciding how to vote in the forthcoming referendum on British membership of the European union, it would be a good idea to listen very carefully to the arguments of both sides.

Pay attention to what each side is saying - and to what each side is NOT saying.

2 comments:

Jim said...

Prey tell, why?

Currently the UK trades using the Pound in the single market, In the event of a leave vote that does not change. I really don't get your point here Chris.

You seem to be confusing the Single Market with the EU, which is a great mistake.

Chris Whiteside said...

The point I am making is that one side in the Scottish referendum on whether to leave the UK had built their plans for what should happen if they won on an assumption that have turned out to massively wrong, which would have had disastrous consequences had they won.

It happened to be the side that wanted to leave who screwed up on a massive scale in the arguments they put for the 2014 referendum but I am not suggesting either side in the forthcoming EU membership referendum should get a free pass from scrutiny.

The obvious lesson is that wise voters should scrutinise the plans put forward by BOTH "Leave" and "Remain" very carefully for any disastrous holes, omissions or risky assumptions similar to the one the "Yes" campaign in Scotland made about the price of oil.