Tuesday, February 16, 2016

Iain Martin thinks the "Leave" campaign will be in trouble if a Farage-type figure leads it:

Iain Martin, editor of CapX argues at

http://capx.co/if-nigel-farage-leads-leave-it-looks-like-curtains-for-brexit/

that if Nigel Farage becomes the effective leader of the "Vote Leave" campaign then the chances of a "Leave" win are just about over. As he puts it

"it is very difficult to see Leave EU winning the designation as anything other than the end for Brexit."

I wonder.

He's certainly right that an "out" campaign dominated by UKIP style messages is less likely to win. Speaking as a floater on the issue, I will admit to having found that the vast majority of Kipper-style material I hear reduces the chance of me voting for that side.

On the other hand, we are not electing a government but setting a strategy, and the British people are smart enough to get that.

And some of the material from "Britain Stronger in Europe" has been as toxic to their cause as the Kippers are to theirs.

Actually, one of the smarter things the "Leave" side has done is to very effectively ridicule the "remain" arguments as scaremongering - including a few arguments that most of the "remain" side were not actually stupid enough to make.

Based on their record in 2015 I take the telephone polls on the result with a pinch of salt and the internet polls with a bucketful, and conclude that the most likely result is a narrow win for "Remain" but the game is very far from over yet.

3 comments:

Jim said...

Its looking very likely unfortunately. Its looking like Leave.EU are going to step aside in favour of Grassroots Out GO, at least that's what Banks is hinting.

Not a big fan out Go (basically UKIP in Lipstick) and fronted by Farage, Dont even get me started on how a group formed by and lead by second rate politicians is "grassroots" but I digress. I don't think with Go as the lead campaign it would be a narrow win for "remain" I think it would be a landslide.

Hopefully the Leave Alliance put up a decent fight for the delegation, but with limited funds, who knows.

Its not looking good for leave at the moment.

Jim said...

Here is the application

Sad as it is

Jim said...

You see, If the leave side did actually congregate a thought though and clear exit plan we may actually get somewhere.

I can not stress enough, that 40 years of integration can not be un-done in one single step, it just can not. The price is that exit is a process, its not an event. Its a process that will take 10-15 years.

Now in the first stage then to keep the Trade, to keep the economics right and correct, to keep single market access, we must yield to freedom of movement. Its a price worth paying Kippers, trust me it is.

from there we can move on.

Let me put it like this, if you cant give in to Flexcit (the only workable plan on the table) as it does concede freedom of movement in its first stage.

Then rather ironically you had better get used to freedom of movement as you can not win this referendum, and you are stuck with it for the long term.

Do I make my self clear on this?