Thursday, July 28, 2016

The Brexit hype cycle

I was amused to see that an article in City AM explains reactions to Brexit by inverting the new technology hype cycle.

Where new technology typically produces an initial surge of hype followed by a trough of disillusionment as it fails to live up to the hype, and finally settles on a plateau of productivity, it has been suggested that the vote to leave the EU has initially produced a spike of panic, which is in the process of being replaced by a "return of rationality" as people notice that the sky has not fallen in, and will end with a plateau of pragmatism.

I certainly prefer this to the excessive reaction of many on both sides - the Remainer doom-mongers grabbing every opportunity to present any event they can as proof that voting to quit the EU was a disaster while the "Doctor Pangleavess"  are equally keen to seize any pretext, however flimsy, to show that Brexit is already bringing heaven on earth.

There is a possibility - though I certainly would not bet on it - that in a few years, after we have actually left the EU and the economy has adjusted to the new situation, it will then be possible to make a rational assessment of whether the "plateau of pragmatism" leaves Britain at a higher of lower level than it would have been had there been a "Remain" vote.

It is way too early to make that judgement now and some of those on both sides who are still refighting g the referendum are becoming tiresome.

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