Thursday, April 14, 2016

Hallelujah! An intelligent and balanced account of possible consequences of Brexit

Hat tip to Charlotte Leslie MP for drawing my attention to the publication by "Open Europe" of

"Where next?
A liberal, free-market guide to Brexit"

which you can read here.

Open Europe have said that they "will remain neutral in the EU Referendum campaign, confining ourselves to commenting as accurately as we can on the arguments and facts advanced on both sides of the debate."
 
"Where Next" is not an endorsement of "Leave" or "Remain" but it is far and away the most balanced and objective assessment I have seen of what policy options would be available to Britain if there is a "Leave" vote on 23rd June, what risks would affect the UK's position and how they could be countered, what opportunities would open up and how they could be grasped.
 
It is extremely refreshing to read a document which says from the outset that if Britain leaves the EU the result will not be either an apocalypse or a utopia.

To give you an idea of where this report is coming from, let me quote from the executive summary

"The EU referendum is a crucial decision about Britain’s future, but the campaign so far has failed to adequately address how life outside the EU might look. It will not be an apocalypse and it will not be a utopia. The growing economic evidence suggests that there would be a small negative economic result from Brexit, probably in the region of 0.5% - 1.5% of GDP in the long run, presuming a reasonable trade agreement is struck between the UK and the EU.
 
The question then is whether the UK can use its new found freedoms to offset this cost or reverse it to a positive outcome.
 
We believe it is possible, but the path to prosperity outside the EU lies through:
 
  * free trade and opening up to low cost competition,
 * maintaining relatively high immigration (albeit with a different mix of skills), and
 * pushing through deregulation and economic reforms in areas where the UK has historically been sub-par compared to international partners

There is no doubt that such an approach would disappoint a number of people on the "Leave" side and whether there is appetite for such changes in the UK is unclear.
 
One thing that is clear is that Brexit cannot be all things to all people."
 
Quite.

3 comments:

Jim said...

A conversation with a Kipper wont name them, but will name me. K = kipper, J = Me

K = I read though that flexit leaflet.
J = well done.
K = its utter rubbish
J = hmmm, OK why?
K = Freedom of movement, Immigration is the no 1 issue
J = I think you should read it again
K = No, the whole thing is tripe.
J = Have you really read it?
K = YES..... And its tripe.
J = so you got to the bit that says we will compromise the single market for freedom of movement for the short term and then you stopped.
K = YES!
J = There is the problem you did not read it
K = I dont have to
J = But that is just it, you do
K = No i don't, it compromises on [FOM] so its stupid
J = erm ok, so you have not read it though, why is that stupid if you have not read the rest?
K = Its stupid because it does not allow border controls.
J = And why is that stupid?
K = it just is, so the rest of the plan is stupid.
J = Oh, I see, Thank you so much for your constructive criticism of a plan you have not read, as you hit a part you don't like and stopped reading, you don't know why you don't like the part you don't but you just don't so the rest of it is tripe, makes perfect sense.
K = **** *** **** ******* ****, I am banning you ****

erm ok.

Jim said...

Just thought I would add that as today's funny. Its always good how a good laugh can help though anything really.

(oh and yes, its quite real)

Chris Whiteside said...

I believe you. Some people just will not see that real world politics and government is the art of the compromise, under our present system or any other.