Tuesday, July 05, 2016

May wins first ballot

Votes on the first ballot for the Conservative leadership

Theresa May: 165
Andrea Leadsom: 66
Michael Gove: 48
Stephen Crabb: 34
Liam Fox: 16

Liam Fox is eliminated after the first round.

It will be interesting to see if Stephen Crabb stays in the race - he would need all but two of Liam Fox's votes to overhaul Michael Gove.

Only tactical voting could save him, I think!


Jim said...

Well thats it really, its May vs erm, well a tainted candidate. the best the tainted can finish is one vote behind May.

Chris Whiteside said...

The last two candidates standing go to a vote of party members

At the moment that looks like the ballot of party members will be May versus Leadsom unless - as they probably have the votes to do - Theresa May's supporters decide they would rather face Gove than Leadsom in the ballot of party members and "lend" Gove enough votes to overhaul her.

That sort of thing has been known to happen in Conservative leadership elections. It has also been known to go horribly wrong for the people doing the tactical voting, or nearly so.

In 2001, IDS supporters are believed to have lent some votes to Ken Clarke to try to knock Michael Portillo out of the final two. If this is true, Ken had more support than they realised and they nearly overdid it trying to produce a result that might have happened anyway. Ken topped the poll among MPs and Portillo did get knocked out - but he was only one vote behind IDS. If they had moved two more people over to Ken, or one person wavering between IDS and Portillo had gone the other way, they would have knocked their own man out!

Jim said...

I hear you and I agree with you, I just cant see how a member who is so tainted by £350 million can ever win it. I just can't. I may be wrong as you rightly point out, but it just makes no sense to me as to why that would be.