Thursday, June 23, 2016

Down to the wire, continued

Peter Kellner, a very shrewd pollster,  has written a very interesting article at

http://politicscounter.com/?p=95

in which he takes an average of the final polls, with the telephone polls predicting a Remain win and the online polls a Leave win. The phone polls were more accurate in their General Election predictions although of course a referendum is different.

Analysing the possible sources of error and late change - for example, the possibility that expats and Gibraltar might add up to half a percent to Remain's share and the chances of a late swing - he thinks Remain is likely to get between 51.2& and 57.3%, Leave between 42.7% and 48.8% with the mid point being a Remain lead of about 8%.

But he admits that "If the phone polls have been systematically overstating support for Remain throughout the campaign, then a victory for Brexit is perfectly possible."

In other words it could still be very close and could still go either way.

I love his last paragraph

"My apologies if that is not precise enough for you. If you need a more exact forecast, I suggest you toss a coin or ask an astrologer."

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